Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Jun 22, 2022 – Smat News

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Daily Market Reports | 10:58 AM

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ALU   ASB   ATA   BGA   BUB   BVS   BXB   COD   COE   CPU   LDX   NIC   OCL   PBH (3)   RDY   RFG   SCP   TCL  

RFG    RETAIL FOOD GROUP LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $0.05

Shaw and Partners rates ((RFG)) as Buy (1) –

Retail Food has guided to FY22 EBITDA of around $21.4m, largely in line with expectations. The trading update showed key operating metrics strengthened throughout the second half as the business overcame pandemic-related disruptions.

Regulatory uncertainty is the key issue, Shaw and Partners asserts, yet the stock is performing well and is in a stronger regulatory position than is largely appreciated by the market.

The broker reduces cash flow forecasts in line with commentary around expected net debt levels and pushes back expectations for a resumption of dividends by six months. Buy rating maintained. Target is $0.12.

This report was published on June 21, 2022.

Target price is $0.12 Current Price is $0.05 Difference: $0.07
If RFG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 140% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.14.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.20 cents and EPS of 0.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.25.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SCP    SHOPPING CENTRES AUSTRALASIA PROPERTY GROUP RE LIMITED

REITs – Overnight Price: $2.74

Moelis rates ((SCP)) as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) –

Moelis believes Shopping Centres Australasia Property is a highly defensive exposure because of the non-discretionary nature of its retail assets. Its income stream is also well-hedged to inflation.

The company has announced an agreement to acquire five neighbourhood shopping centres for $180m which implies an average fully let yield of 6%.

Gearing is expected to increase to 30.5% at the end of July, from 28.5%, and move back to the lower end of the 30-40% target range. This includes the contribution from the dividend reinvestment plan, which has been 50% underwritten.

Moelis considers the stock attractively priced and upgrades to Buy from Hold. Target is reduced to $2.97 from $3.20.

This report was published on June 20, 2022.

Target price is $2.97 Current Price is $2.74 Difference: $0.23
If SCP meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.01, suggesting upside of 9.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 15.20 cents and EPS of 17.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.0, implying annual growth of -60.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 15.40 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.0, implying annual growth of 5.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TCL    TRANSURBAN GROUP LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $13.95

Jarden rates ((TCL)) as Underweight (4) –

Transurban Group has announced a second half distribution of $0.26, in line with expectations. This includes around 2.5c in capital release from the increased stake in WestConnex. Transurban has indicated it expects to receive around $2.3bn in capital releases over FY22-25.

Jarden’s forecast dividend yield of 4.5% offers a 0.4% spread to the 10-year Australian government bond yield, with the historical average since 2017 sitting at 3.2%. Incorporating potential capital releases as distributions in FY23 would mean the dividend yield increases to 4.9% and offers a 0.8% spread to the 10-year Australian government bond yield.

The broker maintains an Underweight rating, noting the main downside risks are increases in interest rates, development risk at the West Gate tunnel and a possible equity raising for future acquisitions. Upside risks include a stronger-than-expected rebound in traffic volumes and higher tariff adjustments. Target is reduced to $13.20 from $13.40.

This report was published on June 20, 2022.

Target price is $13.20 Current Price is $13.95 Difference: minus $0.75 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $14.54, suggesting upside of 4.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 40.80 cents and EPS of 7.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 178.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 153.3.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 61.10 cents and EPS of 23.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 59.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.3, implying annual growth of 189.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 53.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


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